Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 27?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $32K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$32.3K
-$934.02
86.3¢ → 97.2¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 justdance | Noavg 91.7¢ | $18.3K | $19.3K | +$1.0K | 51% 2680-2529 (5209) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $12.7K | $10.8K | $-1.9K | 65% 2320-1257 (3577) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 95.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0.6 | 64% 743-427 (1170) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $468.83 | $547.7 | +$78.87 | 59% 2138-1503 (3641) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $639.98 | $488.71 | -$151.27 | 30% 77-179 (256) |
justdanceInvested
$18,313.49
Value
$19.3K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
51%
2680-2529 (5209)
Invested
$12,668.57
Value
$10.8K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
65%
2320-1257 (3577)
Invested
$1,143.6
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0.6
Record
64%
743-427 (1170)
Invested
$468.83
Value
$547.7
PnL
+$78.87
Record
59%
2138-1503 (3641)
Invested
$639.98
Value
$488.71
PnL
-$151.27
Record
30%
77-179 (256)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.