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No
justdanceARB<$100YesYesYesNo
FacaieCTR<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 29?
Resolved Yes. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$15.7K
Combined PnL
$-26.0K
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares19,976
Combined PnL$-28.0K
Yes2 traders
Total Value$3.0K
Total Shares3,004
Combined PnL+$1.9K
No — 60%Yes — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 89.8¢ | $27.8K | — | $-27.8K | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
justdanceARB<$100 | Yesavg 38.3¢ | $8.6K | $12.7K | +$4.1K | 52% 2695-2537 (5232) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.8¢ | $3.7K | — | $-3.7K | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.3¢ | $4.9K | $12.7K | +$7.9K | |
NE never-stop-clicking | Yesavg 37.6¢ | $1.0K | $2.8K | +$1.7K | 31% 90-196 (286) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 8¢ | $17.87 | $223.32 | +$205.45 | 63% 758-439 (1197) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Noavg 94¢ | $510.63 | — | -$154.05 | 59% 2174-1532 (3706) |
FacaieCTR<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $19.35 | — | -$19.35 | 92% 1223-102 (1325) |
0X
0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTRInvested
$27,783.09
Value
—
PnL
$-27.8K
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
justdanceARB<$100Invested
$8,607.97
Value
$12.7K
PnL
+$4.1K
Record
52%
2695-2537 (5232)
Both legs:
No$3,719.4349.8¢$-3.7K
Yes$4,87038.3¢+$7.9K
NE
never-stop-clickingInvested
$1,044.33
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
31%
90-196 (286)
TO
TokorInvested
$17.87
Value
$223.32
PnL
+$205.45
Record
63%
758-439 (1197)
0X
0xDB5CTRInvested
$510.63
Value
—
PnL
-$154.05
Record
59%
2174-1532 (3706)
FacaieCTR<$100Invested
$19.35
Value
—
PnL
-$19.35
Record
92%
1223-102 (1325)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x34e182c7...e61581
Slug
will-bitcoin-dip-to-78k-on-october-29-2026