Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$20.6K
$235.18
93.7¢ → 95.3¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $17.3K | $17.4K | +$59.45 | 65% 2335-1260 (3595) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 91¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$52.2 | 64% 749-428 (1177) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $879.61 | $964.39 | +$84.78 | 98% 6824-159 (6983) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $289.57 | $330.05 | +$40.48 | 30% 77-181 (258) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $266.31 | $264.58 | -$1.73 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
Invested
$17,284.48
Value
$17.4K
PnL
+$59.45
Record
65%
2335-1260 (3595)
Invested
$1,554.93
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$52.2
Record
64%
749-428 (1177)
Invested
$879.61
Value
$964.39
PnL
+$84.78
Record
98%
6824-159 (6983)
Invested
$289.57
Value
$330.05
PnL
+$40.48
Record
30%
77-181 (258)
Invested
$266.31
Value
$264.58
PnL
-$1.73
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.