Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 75¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$11.2K
$1.8K
59.4¢ → 74.5¢
+25% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 61.1¢ | $7.5K | $9.1K | +$1.6K | 65% 2423-1286 (3709) |
 justdance | Noavg 58¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | +$0.05 | 52% 2713-2541 (5254) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 44¢ | $268.4 | $356.85 | +$88.45 | 63% 782-461 (1243) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 35.2¢ | $87.73 | $185.94 | +$98.21 | 59% 2205-1559 (3764) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $7.95 | $11.18 | +$3.23 | 86% 2131-337 (2468) |
Invested
$7,460.74
Value
$9.1K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
65%
2423-1286 (3709)
justdanceInvested
$1,740.34
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
2713-2541 (5254)
Invested
$268.4
Value
$356.85
PnL
+$88.45
Record
63%
782-461 (1243)
Invested
$87.73
Value
$185.94
PnL
+$98.21
Record
59%
2205-1559 (3764)
Invested
$7.95
Value
$11.18
PnL
+$3.23
Record
86%
2131-337 (2468)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.