Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 30?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 82¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$17.8K
$-3.2K
90.1¢ → 81.5¢
-10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $19.8K | $16.8K | $-3.0K | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $608.9 | $495.13 | -$113.77 | 12% 23-162 (185) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $411.88 | $366.62 | -$45.26 | 63% 770-443 (1213) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $197.37 | $93.01 | -$20.16 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $58.07 | $26.78 | -$31.29 | 29% 35-86 (121) |
 Facaie<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $8.1 | $8.15 | +$0.05 | 92% 1248-105 (1353) |
Invested
$19,763.07
Value
$16.8K
PnL
$-3.0K
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Invested
$608.9
Value
$495.13
PnL
-$113.77
Record
12%
23-162 (185)
Invested
$411.88
Value
$366.62
PnL
-$45.26
Record
63%
770-443 (1213)
Invested
$197.37
Value
$93.01
PnL
-$20.16
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
Invested
$58.07
Value
$26.78
PnL
-$31.29
Record
29%
35-86 (121)
Facaie<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
$8.15
PnL
+$0.05
Record
92%
1248-105 (1353)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.