Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 29?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 91¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 30
🔬
Research candidate
No
7
No 71%
$15.1K
$585.39
83.9¢ → 90.8¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 91%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $9.7K | $9.1K | -$568.83 | 65% 2368-1272 (3640) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $2.0K | $3.2K | +$1.2K | 98% 6846-162 (7008) |
 Facaie | Noavg 87.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$7.92 | 92% 1223-102 (1325) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $751.39 | $583.58 | -$167.81 | 31% 90-196 (286) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 76.3¢ | $224.56 | $198.4 | +$27.15 | 63% 758-439 (1197) |
AB 0xab15...46e5 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $152.35 | $186.16 | +$14.43 | — |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 9.6¢ | $306.33 | $154.94 | +$31.47 | 59% 2174-1533 (3707) |
Invested
$9,656.87
Value
$9.1K
PnL
-$568.83
Record
65%
2368-1272 (3640)
Invested
$2,001.14
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
98%
6846-162 (7008)
FacaieInvested
$1,670.72
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$7.92
Record
92%
1223-102 (1325)
Invested
$751.39
Value
$583.58
PnL
-$167.81
Record
31%
90-196 (286)
Invested
$224.56
Value
$198.4
PnL
+$27.15
Record
63%
758-439 (1197)
Invested
$152.35
Value
$186.16
PnL
+$14.43
Record
—
Invested
$306.33
Value
$154.94
PnL
+$31.47
Record
59%
2174-1533 (3707)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.