Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 32¢ · $9K held · ends Dec 1

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$550.06

Smart Money Entry

35.5¢ → 31.5¢

-11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares17,539

Combined PnL+$103.07

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,748

Combined PnL+$446.99

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bitterfishCTR	Noavg 37.1¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$49.66	65% 336-183 (519)
justdance	Yesavg 62¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$14.28	52% 2744-2561 (5305)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Noavg 31.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$40.92	46% 466-545 (1011)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Yesavg 63.4¢	$4.7K	$1.1K	+$410.51	55% 803-666 (1469)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Noavg 28.8¢	$642.86	$702.56	+$59.71	65% 2633-1390 (4023)
└ No leg	Noavg 28.8¢	$492.53	$555.64	+$63.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.1¢	$152.51	$146.92	-$3.41
0X 0xDB5CTR	Noavg 29.1¢	$272.74	$285.48	+$12.74	59% 2378-1627 (4005)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 59¢	$154.1	$176.3	+$22.2	62% 815-506 (1321)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Noavg 32.1¢	$19.7	$19.45	-$0.25	46% 6086-7026 (13112)

bitterfishCTR

Invested

$4,224.23

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$49.66

Record

65%

336-183 (519)

justdance

Yes

Invested

$1,670.48

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$14.28

Record

52%

2744-2561 (5305)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Invested

$1,132.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$40.92

Record

46%

466-545 (1011)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Yes

Invested

$4,741.78

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$410.51

Record

55%

803-666 (1469)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Invested

$642.86

Value

$702.56

PnL

+$59.71

Record

65%

2633-1390 (4023)

Both legs:

No$492.5328.8¢+$63.11

Yes$152.5170.1¢-$3.41

0xDB5CTR

Invested

$272.74

Value

$285.48

PnL

+$12.74

Record

59%

2378-1627 (4005)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$154.1

Value

$176.3

PnL

+$22.2

Record

62%

815-506 (1321)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$19.7

Value

$19.45

PnL

-$0.25

Record

46%

6086-7026 (13112)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.0%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.