Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on October 30?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $28K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$28.0K
$816.07
93.7¢ → 98.3¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $26.0K | $26.7K | +$778.06 | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
 Facaie | Noavg 98.5¢ | $591.1 | $589.8 | -$1.3 | 92% 1248-105 (1353) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 88.9¢ | $453.56 | $472.07 | +$18.51 | 63% 770-443 (1213) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $420.65 | $126.24 | +$38.95 | 43% 170-221 (391) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $112.95 | $44.17 | -$12.92 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $26.22 | $20.98 | -$5.24 | 29% 35-86 (121) |
Invested
$25,956.06
Value
$26.7K
PnL
+$778.06
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
FacaieInvested
$591.1
Value
$589.8
PnL
-$1.3
Record
92%
1248-105 (1353)
Invested
$453.56
Value
$472.07
PnL
+$18.51
Record
63%
770-443 (1213)
Invested
$420.65
Value
$126.24
PnL
+$38.95
Record
43%
170-221 (391)
Invested
$112.95
Value
$44.17
PnL
-$12.92
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
Invested
$26.22
Value
$20.98
PnL
-$5.24
Record
29%
35-86 (121)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.