Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on October 29?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$14.3K
$501.88
94.6¢ → 98.3¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Facaie | Noavg 96.8¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | +$49.18 | 92% 1223-102 (1325) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $5.6K | $5.9K | +$364.89 | 65% 2368-1272 (3640) |
AB 0xab15...46e5 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$32.73 | — |
 justdance | Noavg 95¢ | $965.17 | $1.0K | +$48.26 | 52% 2695-2537 (5232) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $252.38 | $57.73 | +$6.82 | 59% 2174-1533 (3707) |
FacaieInvested
$5,998.92
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$49.18
Record
92%
1223-102 (1325)
Invested
$5,562.57
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$364.89
Record
65%
2368-1272 (3640)
Invested
$1,233.79
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$32.73
Record
—
justdanceInvested
$965.17
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$48.26
Record
52%
2695-2537 (5232)
Invested
$252.38
Value
$57.73
PnL
+$6.82
Record
59%
2174-1533 (3707)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.