Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 October 26-November 1?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 98¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$9.8K
$60.11
96.3¢ → 98¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $10.1K | $9.6K | +$146.3 | 65% 2348-1268 (3616) |
 justdanceCTR | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $218.31 | $122.69 | -$95.62 | 51% 2687-2534 (5221) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 88¢ | $96.8 | $106.26 | +$10.84 | 60% 261-177 (438) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $10.34 | $9.19 | -$1.15 | 59% 2163-1516 (3679) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.66 | $0.41 | -$0.25 | 54% 739-627 (1366) |
Invested
$10,121.75
Value
$9.6K
PnL
+$146.3
Record
65%
2348-1268 (3616)
justdanceCTRInvested
$218.31
Value
$122.69
PnL
-$95.62
Record
51%
2687-2534 (5221)
PippiTraderInvested
$96.8
Value
$106.26
PnL
+$10.84
Record
60%
261-177 (438)
Invested
$10.34
Value
$9.19
PnL
-$1.15
Record
59%
2163-1516 (3679)
Invested
$0.66
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$0.25
Record
54%
739-627 (1366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.