Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 November 2-8?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 79¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 9

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.3K

Combined PnL

$356.45

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 78.9¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares19,370

Combined PnL-$245.6

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares28,834

Combined PnL+$602.06

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

98h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
justdance	Noavg 74.3¢	$14.3K	$14.0K	-$277.25	52% 2930-2725 (5655)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Yesavg 46.4¢	$24.3K	$5.7K	$-5.6K	65% 3104-1651 (4755)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.4¢	$5.0K	$3.1K	$-1.4K
└ No leg	Noavg 79.1¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	$-4.1K
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$8.3K	$5.1K	+$827.55	46% 520-601 (1121)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 51.9¢	$389.25	$202.5	-$186.75	62% 871-540 (1411)
PippiTrader	Noavg 55¢	$165.04	$104.2	+$27.26	59% 442-306 (748)
cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$576.34	$90.47	+$3.73	49% 10571-11222 (21793)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.5¢	$52.56	$53.36	-$89.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.5¢	$39.3	$37.11	+$93.31
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR	Yesavg 55¢	$109.59	$70.84	-$38.75	55% 846-701 (1547)
19 196874353278<$100	Noavg 59.5¢	$25.01	$29.4	+$4.39	40% 359-528 (887)

justdance

Invested

$14,257.92

Value

$14.0K

PnL

-$277.25

Record

52%

2930-2725 (5655)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$24,265.12

Value

$5.7K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

65%

3104-1651 (4755)

Both legs:

Yes$4,973.9646.4¢$-1.4K

No$2,991.9179.1¢$-4.1K

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$8,265.51

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$827.55

Record

46%

520-601 (1121)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$389.25

Value

$202.5

PnL

-$186.75

Record

62%

871-540 (1411)

PippiTrader

Invested

$165.04

Value

$104.2

PnL

+$27.26

Record

59%

442-306 (748)

cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100

Invested

$576.34

Value

$90.47

PnL

+$3.73

Record

49%

10571-11222 (21793)

Both legs:

No$52.5668.5¢-$89.57

Yes$39.330.5¢+$93.31

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR

Yes

Invested

$109.59

Value

$70.84

PnL

-$38.75

Record

55%

846-701 (1547)

196874353278<$100

Invested

$25.01

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$4.39

Record

40%

359-528 (887)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

98h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.0%

78.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.