Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on October 30?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$15.9K
$3.93
97.5¢ → 99.3¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $15.4K | $15.4K | +$60.58 | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $244.55 | $237 | -$7.55 | 43% 170-221 (391) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.4¢ | $198.8 | $195.7 | -$3.1 | 92% 1248-105 (1353) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $75.66 | $35.4 | -$40.26 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $17.22 | $11.48 | -$5.74 | 29% 35-86 (121) |
Invested
$15,354.76
Value
$15.4K
PnL
+$60.58
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Invested
$244.55
Value
$237
PnL
-$7.55
Record
43%
170-221 (391)
FacaieInvested
$198.8
Value
$195.7
PnL
-$3.1
Record
92%
1248-105 (1353)
Invested
$75.66
Value
$35.4
PnL
-$40.26
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
Invested
$17.22
Value
$11.48
PnL
-$5.74
Record
29%
35-86 (121)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.