Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on October 29?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$13.6K
$803.87
91.3¢ → 98¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Facaie | Noavg 98¢ | $6.2K | $6.2K | -$30.65 | 92% 1223-102 (1325) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$35.4 | 65% 2368-1272 (3640) |
 justdance | Noavg 74.3¢ | $2.2K | $2.9K | +$678 | 52% 2695-2537 (5232) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $613.43 | $585.97 | -$13.11 | 59% 2174-1533 (3707) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $441.28 | $575.51 | +$134.23 | 98% 6846-162 (7008) |
FacaieInvested
$6,203.37
Value
$6.2K
PnL
-$30.65
Record
92%
1223-102 (1325)
Invested
$3,351.62
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$35.4
Record
65%
2368-1272 (3640)
justdanceInvested
$2,229
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$678
Record
52%
2695-2537 (5232)
Invested
$613.43
Value
$585.97
PnL
-$13.11
Record
59%
2174-1533 (3707)
Invested
$441.28
Value
$575.51
PnL
+$134.23
Record
98%
6846-162 (7008)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.