Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 11?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$11.5K
$1.1K
72.7¢ → 99.1¢
+36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $25.1K | $8.4K | +$371.18 | 65% 87-46 (133) |
 justdance | Noavg 50.1¢ | $1.5K | $2.8K | +$1.3K | 61% 20-13 (33) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 68.8¢ | $1.3K | $172.06 | +$330.35 | 72% 62-24 (86) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR | Yesavg 8.7¢ | $164.22 | $71.36 | -$92.86 | — 1-9 (10) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 14.2¢ | $811.54 | $33.63 | -$212.64 | 46% 21-25 (46) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 16.4¢ | $1.2K | $26.9 | -$615.06 | 48% 93-99 (192) |
Invested
$25,147.72
Value
$8.4K
PnL
+$371.18
Record
65%
87-46 (133)
justdanceInvested
$1,480.62
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
61%
20-13 (33)
Invested
$1,337.57
Value
$172.06
PnL
+$330.35
Record
72%
62-24 (86)
Invested
$164.22
Value
$71.36
PnL
-$92.86
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$811.54
Value
$33.63
PnL
-$212.64
Record
46%
21-25 (46)
Invested
$1,197.43
Value
$26.9
PnL
-$615.06
Record
48%
93-99 (192)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.