Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on November 10?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 47¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$352.25

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,275

Combined PnL-$370.85

No3 traders

Total Value$100.7

Total Shares138

Combined PnL+$18.6

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$6.1K	$6.7K	+$573.02	61% 38-24 (62)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$127.69
└ No leg	Noavg 46.8¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$445.33
SH shaillakhaniCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$2.9K	$2.5K	-$370.85	1% 1-190 (191)
justdance<$100	Noavg 24¢	$18.46	$47.69	+$29.23	43% 9-12 (21)
CL CleanCoinFlip	Noavg 77¢	$172.98	$46.33	-$10.7	39% 11-17 (28)
TO Tokor<$100	Noavg 44¢	$6.61	$6.68	+$0.08	50% 79-79 (158)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$6,138.13

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$573.02

Record

61%

38-24 (62)

Both legs:

Yes$3,727.9843¢+$127.69

No$2,410.1546.8¢+$445.33

shaillakhaniCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,850.11

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$370.85

Record

1-190 (191)

justdance<$100

Invested

$18.46

Value

$47.69

PnL

+$29.23

Record

43%

9-12 (21)

CleanCoinFlip

Invested

$172.98

Value

$46.33

PnL

-$10.7

Record

39%

11-17 (28)

Tokor<$100

Invested

$6.61

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

79-79 (158)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.