Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on October 30?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$11.2K
-$20.12
98.6¢ → 99.7¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $10.8K | $10.8K | +$44.23 | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.5¢ | $324.33 | $322.48 | -$1.85 | 92% 1248-105 (1353) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $142.05 | $84.79 | -$55.21 | 43% 170-221 (391) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $9.68 | $7.55 | -$2.13 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $10.33 | $5.18 | -$5.16 | 29% 35-86 (121) |
Invested
$10,773.27
Value
$10.8K
PnL
+$44.23
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
FacaieInvested
$324.33
Value
$322.48
PnL
-$1.85
Record
92%
1248-105 (1353)
Invested
$142.05
Value
$84.79
PnL
-$55.21
Record
43%
170-221 (391)
Invested
$9.68
Value
$7.55
PnL
-$2.13
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
Invested
$10.33
Value
$5.18
PnL
-$5.16
Record
29%
35-86 (121)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.