Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$14.8K
$1.4K
82.8¢ → 97¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $12.2K | $14.4K | +$2.2K | 63% 71-42 (113) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $220.85 | $221.06 | +$0.2 | 98% 50-1 (51) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $566.12 | $140.29 | -$320.21 | 45% 66-80 (146) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 97¢ | $570.53 | $20.21 | -$406.74 | 46% 17-20 (37) |
 justdance<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.35 | $4.24 | +$0.9 | 58% 18-13 (31) |
Invested
$12,237.67
Value
$14.4K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
63%
71-42 (113)
Invested
$220.85
Value
$221.06
PnL
+$0.2
Record
98%
50-1 (51)
Invested
$566.12
Value
$140.29
PnL
-$320.21
Record
45%
66-80 (146)
Invested
$570.53
Value
$20.21
PnL
-$406.74
Record
46%
17-20 (37)
justdance<$100Invested
$3.35
Value
$4.24
PnL
+$0.9
Record
58%
18-13 (31)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.