Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on November 10?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 83¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$11.2K
$-1.1K
86.6¢ → 82.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 86.9¢ | $10.2K | $8.3K | $-1.9K | 61% 38-24 (62) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$139.87 | 1% 1-190 (191) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $395.33 | $718.47 | +$339.74 | 40% 29-44 (73) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 14.2¢ | $282.67 | $560.23 | +$357.41 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 78¢ | $246.06 | $214.51 | -$31.55 | 50% 79-79 (158) |
 justdance<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $6.34 | $8.29 | +$1.95 | 43% 9-12 (21) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $6.9 | $5.17 | -$1.73 | — 8-9 (17) |
Invested
$10,176.21
Value
$8.3K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$1,300
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$139.87
Record
1%
1-190 (191)
Invested
$395.33
Value
$718.47
PnL
+$339.74
Record
40%
29-44 (73)
Invested
$282.67
Value
$560.23
PnL
+$357.41
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$246.06
Value
$214.51
PnL
-$31.55
Record
50%
79-79 (158)
justdance<$100Invested
$6.34
Value
$8.29
PnL
+$1.95
Record
43%
9-12 (21)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$6.9
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$1.73
Record
—
8-9 (17)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.