Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 November 9-15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 55¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 16

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

-$444.48

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 54.5¢

-8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares6,313

Combined PnL+$890.01

No7 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,450

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$747.63	— 2-1 (3)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 62.9¢	$15.2K	$2.1K	$-1.4K	65% 87-46 (133)
SU suntori	Noavg 62.7¢	$1.2K	$811.54	-$178.79	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
justdance	Noavg 53.5¢	$6.3K	$558.03	+$171.53	61% 20-13 (33)
TO Tokor	Noavg 42.5¢	$190.05	$241.53	+$51.49	50% 88-89 (177)
0X 0xDB5CTR	Yesavg 30.9¢	$581.8	$233.59	+$134.59	72% 62-24 (86)
PH PhongLeXBT	Noavg 46¢	$233.68	$205.74	+$55.11	— 1-9 (10)
PippiTrader<$100	Noavg 48.4¢	$72.57	$81	+$8.43	37% 14-24 (38)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 53.6¢	$838.54	$32.71	-$26.17	— 1-0 (1)
cryingbabydicer87CTR	Yesavg 46.9¢	$196.28	$27.22	+$7.79	47% 738-817 (1555)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,897.83

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$747.63

Record

—

2-1 (3)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$15,213.46

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

65%

87-46 (133)

suntori

Invested

$1,173.01

Value

$811.54

PnL

-$178.79

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

justdance

Invested

$6,298.69

Value

$558.03

PnL

+$171.53

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

Tokor

Invested

$190.05

Value

$241.53

PnL

+$51.49

Record

50%

88-89 (177)

0xDB5CTR

Yes

Invested

$581.8

Value

$233.59

PnL

+$134.59

Record

72%

62-24 (86)

PhongLeXBT

Invested

$233.68

Value

$205.74

PnL

+$55.11

Record

—

1-9 (10)

PippiTrader<$100

Invested

$72.57

Value

$81

PnL

+$8.43

Record

37%

14-24 (38)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$838.54

Value

$32.71

PnL

-$26.17

Record

—

1-0 (1)

cryingbabydicer87CTR

Yes

Invested

$196.28

Value

$27.22

PnL

+$7.79

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+53 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.