Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 66¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
2 arb excluded
$21.2K
$5.0K
25.2¢ → 65.5¢
+160% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Noavg 83.4¢ | $16.3K | $12.0K | $-4.3K | 67% 105-51 (156) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $2.6K | $6.3K | +$3.6K | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83.4¢ | $13.7K | $5.7K | $-7.9K | |
EA Eager47259 | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $933.06 | $5.5K | +$5.2K | 47% 102-115 (217) |
SH shaillakhani | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $1.9K | $2.4K | +$402.38 | 1% 2-197 (199) |
 justdanceCTR | Noavg 77.5¢ | $1.0K | $455 | -$552 | 63% 24-14 (38) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Noavg 68.2¢ | $2.0K | $307.79 | -$204.62 | 47% 27-31 (58) |
NO NotJump | Yesavg 41.7¢ | $613.79 | $279.52 | +$163.44 | 54% 428-364 (792) |
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $262.52 | $227.05 | +$591.07 | 74% 75-26 (101) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46¢ | $121.44 | $122.76 | +$1.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $15.93 | $104.29 | +$589.75 |
Invested
$16,341.79
Value
$12.0K
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
67%
105-51 (156)
Both legs:
Invested
$933.06
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$5.2K
Record
47%
102-115 (217)
Invested
$1,949.03
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$402.38
Record
1%
2-197 (199)
justdanceCTRInvested
$1,007
Value
$455
PnL
-$552
Record
63%
24-14 (38)
Invested
$2,046.67
Value
$307.79
PnL
-$204.62
Record
47%
27-31 (58)
Invested
$613.79
Value
$279.52
PnL
+$163.44
Record
54%
428-364 (792)
Invested
$262.52
Value
$227.05
PnL
+$591.07
Record
74%
75-26 (101)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.