Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on November 10?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$23.6K
$55.23
93.6¢ → 94.8¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $20.1K | $19.5K | -$521.04 | 61% 38-24 (62) |
 justdance | Noavg 90.8¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$21 | 43% 9-12 (21) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $479.04 | $731.53 | +$453.56 | 39% 29-45 (74) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 89.1¢ | $356.4 | $366 | +$9.6 | 50% 79-79 (158) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $230.08 | $223.72 | +$92.11 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
Invested
$20,051.08
Value
$19.5K
PnL
-$521.04
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
justdanceInvested
$2,724
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$21
Record
43%
9-12 (21)
Invested
$479.04
Value
$731.53
PnL
+$453.56
Record
39%
29-45 (74)
Invested
$356.4
Value
$366
PnL
+$9.6
Record
50%
79-79 (158)
Invested
$230.08
Value
$223.72
PnL
+$92.11
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.