Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on November 12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 90¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$15.2K
-$641.08
91.3¢ → 89.8¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+14 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $24.5K | $11.3K | $-2.5K | 70% 137-59 (196) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $793.64 | $1.1K | +$588.02 | 49% 124-131 (255) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Yesavg 15.1¢ | $900 | $929.67 | +$29.67 | 2% 3-197 (200) |
 justdance | Noavg 62.9¢ | $565.48 | $782.14 | +$216.66 | 58% 25-18 (43) |
NO NotJump | Noavg 91.1¢ | $977.98 | $543.28 | -$105.53 | 54% 475-399 (874) |
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $933.06 | $259.62 | +$205.85 | 73% 94-34 (128) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 96.7¢ | $147.95 | $133.11 | -$30.63 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $110.87 | $126.51 | +$236.47 | |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 87.2¢ | $2.7K | $175.78 | +$1.1K | 47% 30-34 (64) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $41.45 | $40.68 | -$0.77 | 95% 21-1 (22) |
Invested
$24,543.17
Value
$11.3K
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
70%
137-59 (196)
Invested
$793.64
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$588.02
Record
49%
124-131 (255)
Invested
$900
Value
$929.67
PnL
+$29.67
Record
2%
3-197 (200)
justdanceInvested
$565.48
Value
$782.14
PnL
+$216.66
Record
58%
25-18 (43)
Invested
$977.98
Value
$543.28
PnL
-$105.53
Record
54%
475-399 (874)
Invested
$933.06
Value
$259.62
PnL
+$205.85
Record
73%
94-34 (128)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,691.66
Value
$175.78
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
47%
30-34 (64)
Invested
$41.45
Value
$40.68
PnL
-$0.77
Record
95%
21-1 (22)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.