Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on November 11?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$24.9K
$15.55
97.4¢ → 100¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $16.8K | $17.2K | +$385.08 | 65% 87-46 (133) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $7.0K | $7.0K | +$29.32 | 98% 60-1 (61) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $2.2K | $707.03 | +$44.34 | 72% 62-24 (86) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $303.42 | $9.25 | -$283.7 | 48% 93-99 (192) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $136.72 | $3.79 | -$107.25 | 46% 21-25 (46) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $56 | $3.74 | -$52.25 | — 1-9 (10) |
Invested
$16,785.69
Value
$17.2K
PnL
+$385.08
Record
65%
87-46 (133)
Invested
$7,004.01
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$29.32
Record
98%
60-1 (61)
Invested
$2,231.18
Value
$707.03
PnL
+$44.34
Record
72%
62-24 (86)
Invested
$303.42
Value
$9.25
PnL
-$283.7
Record
48%
93-99 (192)
Invested
$136.72
Value
$3.79
PnL
-$107.25
Record
46%
21-25 (46)
Invested
$56
Value
$3.74
PnL
-$52.25
Record
—
1-9 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.