Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 November 9-15?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 69¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$4.0K
-$516.98
79¢ → 69¢
-13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 79¢ | $4.4K | $3.8K | -$543.36 | 66% 56-29 (85) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $155.44 | $182.44 | +$27 | — 2-1 (3) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $7.5 | $6.9 | -$0.6 | 49% 79-82 (161) |
 justdanceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $0.62 | $0.6 | -$0.02 | 46% 11-13 (24) |
Invested
$4,364.93
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$543.36
Record
66%
56-29 (85)
Invested
$155.44
Value
$182.44
PnL
+$27
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$6.9
PnL
-$0.6
Record
49%
79-82 (161)
justdanceCTR<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.02
Record
46%
11-13 (24)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.