Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $12K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$11.6K
-$88.24
67.2¢ → 69.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Marioy | Noavg 67¢ | $6.7K | $6.8K | +$50.02 | 81% 250-58 (308) |
PI pilimiliCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$150 | 62% 151-91 (242) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 68¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$10.16 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 67.4¢ | $100.15 | $100.98 | +$1.58 | 61% 313-200 (513) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $16.58 | $16.58 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$6,700
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$50.02
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$3,300
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$150
Record
62%
151-91 (242)
Invested
$1,382.44
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$10.16
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
PippiTraderInvested
$100.15
Value
$100.98
PnL
+$1.58
Record
61%
313-200 (513)
Invested
$16.58
Value
$16.58
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.