Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on November 12?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 13

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$20.7K

Combined PnL

-$478.9

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 97.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$20.0K

Total Shares20,595

Combined PnL+$39.25

Yes2 traders

Total Value$681.51

Total Shares26,212

Combined PnL-$518.15

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 96.7¢	$18.7K	$18.8K	+$124.58	70% 137-59 (196)
NO NotJump	Noavg 97.2¢	$486	$445	-$41	54% 545-473 (1018)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$799.59	$419.72	-$277.72	49% 132-138 (270)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 94.6¢	$576.13	$264.65	-$62.89	73% 94-34 (128)
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$642.88	$261.79	-$240.43	47% 30-34 (64)
Facaie	Noavg 80¢	$197.76	$220.01	+$22.25	95% 53-3 (56)
RI Rin2x	Noavg 97¢	$193.9	$178	-$15.9	95% 21-1 (22)
justdance<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$82.26	$94.48	+$12.22	57% 25-19 (44)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$18,674.85

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$124.58

Record

70%

137-59 (196)

NotJump

Invested

$486

Value

$445

PnL

-$41

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$799.59

Value

$419.72

PnL

-$277.72

Record

49%

132-138 (270)

0xDB5

Invested

$576.13

Value

$264.65

PnL

-$62.89

Record

73%

94-34 (128)

CleanCoinFlipCTR

Yes

Invested

$642.88

Value

$261.79

PnL

-$240.43

Record

47%

30-34 (64)

Facaie

Invested

$197.76

Value

$220.01

PnL

+$22.25

Record

95%

53-3 (56)

Rin2x

Invested

$193.9

Value

$178

PnL

-$15.9

Record

95%

21-1 (22)

justdance<$100

Invested

$82.26

Value

$94.48

PnL

+$12.22

Record

57%

25-19 (44)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.