Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on November 9?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$291.01

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 99.8¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares17,933

Combined PnL+$297.27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.71

Total Shares357

Combined PnL-$6.26

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 98.2¢	$17.2K	$17.5K	+$287.2	51% 24-23 (47)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 97.5¢	$417.81	$427.88	+$10.07	— 16-0 (16)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$3.46	$0.59	-$2.62	38% 20-33 (53)
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$6.33	$0.12	-$3.64	— 4-9 (13)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$17,182.03

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$287.2

Record

51%

24-23 (47)

Sharky6999

Invested

$417.81

Value

$427.88

PnL

+$10.07

Record

—

16-0 (16)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.46

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$2.62

Record

38%

20-33 (53)

CleanCoinFlipCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.33

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$3.64

Record

—

4-9 (13)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.