Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 October 26-November 1?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$16.7K
$47.02
97.8¢ → 99¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $10.6K | $10.5K | +$157 | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $5.9K | $5.9K | +$21 | 54% 742-631 (1373) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $170.58 | $171.27 | +$0.69 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
 justdanceCTR | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $108.89 | $35.13 | -$73.76 | 52% 2707-2540 (5247) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $79.92 | $23.31 | -$56.61 | 63% 770-443 (1213) |
AO aosdijfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $2.6 | $2.1 | -$1.3 | 9% 46-450 (496) |
Invested
$10,637.01
Value
$10.5K
PnL
+$157
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Invested
$5,910
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$21
Record
54%
742-631 (1373)
Invested
$170.58
Value
$171.27
PnL
+$0.69
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
justdanceCTRInvested
$108.89
Value
$35.13
PnL
-$73.76
Record
52%
2707-2540 (5247)
Invested
$79.92
Value
$23.31
PnL
-$56.61
Record
63%
770-443 (1213)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$1.3
Record
9%
46-450 (496)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.