Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 November 9-15?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 90¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$15.4K
-$106.61
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $14.2K | $14.0K | -$171.16 | 61% 38-24 (62) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $638.11 | $609.11 | -$29 | — 2-1 (3) |
 justdanceCTR | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $390.61 | $441.12 | +$50.51 | 43% 9-12 (21) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $223.06 | $250.04 | +$36.58 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $50.29 | $56.76 | +$6.47 | 40% 29-44 (73) |
Invested
$14,185.28
Value
$14.0K
PnL
-$171.16
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$638.11
Value
$609.11
PnL
-$29
Record
—
2-1 (3)
justdanceCTRInvested
$390.61
Value
$441.12
PnL
+$50.51
Record
43%
9-12 (21)
Invested
$223.06
Value
$250.04
PnL
+$36.58
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$50.29
Value
$56.76
PnL
+$6.47
Record
40%
29-44 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.