Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 November 2-8?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$10.7K
-$21.67
95.6¢ → 96.2¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $8.9K | $8.8K | -$107.18 | 65% 2675-1414 (4089) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$8.61 | 60% 2415-1641 (4056) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $197.57 | $247.3 | +$49.73 | 48% 279-300 (579) |
SU suntori | Noavg 95.9¢ | $179.28 | $176.63 | +$1.18 | 45% 13208-16070 (29278) |
 justdanceCTR | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $100.5 | $144 | +$43.5 | 52% 2753-2567 (5320) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $39.29 | $39 | -$0.29 | 48% 9426-10320 (19746) |
Invested
$8,895.44
Value
$8.8K
PnL
-$107.18
Record
65%
2675-1414 (4089)
Invested
$1,332.55
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$8.61
Record
60%
2415-1641 (4056)
Invested
$197.57
Value
$247.3
PnL
+$49.73
Record
48%
279-300 (579)
Invested
$179.28
Value
$176.63
PnL
+$1.18
Record
45%
13208-16070 (29278)
justdanceCTRInvested
$100.5
Value
$144
PnL
+$43.5
Record
52%
2753-2567 (5320)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$39.29
Value
$39
PnL
-$0.29
Record
48%
9426-10320 (19746)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.