Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on November 13?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 89¢ · $30K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$30.0K
$225.54
77.6¢ → 88.5¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+19 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $24.4K | $19.9K | -$71.65 | 68% 148-69 (217) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 60.4¢ | $4.4K | $5.7K | +$2.2K | 95% 104-5 (109) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $4.3K | $2.0K | $-2.3K | 4% 9-200 (209) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 74.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$238.96 | 53% 111-99 (210) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 87.3¢ | $981.13 | $629.56 | +$205.04 | 50% 157-155 (312) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $586.03 | $246.12 | -$164.54 | 72% 102-39 (141) |
TA taemaxx<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $65.34 | $78.95 | +$13.61 | 63% 15-9 (24) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 88.2¢ | $327.14 | $65.7 | +$167.73 | 50% 41-41 (82) |
Invested
$24,369.92
Value
$19.9K
PnL
-$71.65
Record
68%
148-69 (217)
Invested
$4,356.56
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
95%
104-5 (109)
Invested
$4,275.87
Value
$2.0K
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
4%
9-200 (209)
Invested
$1,341.95
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$238.96
Record
53%
111-99 (210)
Invested
$981.13
Value
$629.56
PnL
+$205.04
Record
50%
157-155 (312)
Invested
$586.03
Value
$246.12
PnL
-$164.54
Record
72%
102-39 (141)
Invested
$65.34
Value
$78.95
PnL
+$13.61
Record
63%
15-9 (24)
Invested
$327.14
Value
$65.7
PnL
+$167.73
Record
50%
41-41 (82)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.