Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on November 13?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 97¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

$222.94

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 97¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares22,160

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$677

Total Shares13,038

Combined PnL$-1.1K

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 86.5¢	$17.5K	$18.6K	+$1.1K	68% 148-69 (217)
TO Tokor	Noavg 82.9¢	$954.48	$1.1K	+$106.79	53% 111-99 (210)
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$2.1K	$614.58	-$368.56	72% 102-39 (141)
└ No leg	Noavg 95.6¢	$436.38	$420.98	-$36.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.2¢	$228.39	$193.61	-$332.5
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 80¢	$351.25	$404.81	+$53.57	95% 104-5 (109)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 9.9¢	$1.1K	$333.66	-$256.08	50% 157-155 (312)
Facaie	Noavg 96.8¢	$304.22	$304.55	+$0.33	92% 59-5 (64)
SH shaillakhaniCTR	Yesavg 14.4¢	$1.0K	$277.27	-$722.73	4% 9-200 (209)
TA taemaxx<$100	Noavg 88¢	$80.41	$84.24	+$3.84	63% 15-9 (24)
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$467.15	$63.97	-$104.57	50% 41-41 (82)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$1.86	$2.1	+$0.24	46% 2084-2445 (4529)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$17,450.38

Value

$18.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

68%

148-69 (217)

Tokor

Invested

$954.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$106.79

Record

53%

111-99 (210)

0xDB5ARB<$100

Invested

$2,113.01

Value

$614.58

PnL

-$368.56

Record

72%

102-39 (141)

Both legs:

No$436.3895.6¢-$36.06

Yes$228.399.2¢-$332.5

Sharky6999

Invested

$351.25

Value

$404.81

PnL

+$53.57

Record

95%

104-5 (109)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,143.06

Value

$333.66

PnL

-$256.08

Record

50%

157-155 (312)

Facaie

Invested

$304.22

Value

$304.55

PnL

+$0.33

Record

92%

59-5 (64)

shaillakhaniCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$277.27

PnL

-$722.73

Record

9-200 (209)

taemaxx<$100

Invested

$80.41

Value

$84.24

PnL

+$3.84

Record

63%

15-9 (24)

CleanCoinFlipCTR

Yes

Invested

$467.15

Value

$63.97

PnL

-$104.57

Record

50%

41-41 (82)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.24

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.