Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 October 26-November 1?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$12.8K
-$1.53
99.2¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | +$13.37 | 54% 742-631 (1373) |
 justdance | Noavg 99.1¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$4.5 | 52% 2707-2540 (5247) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.4¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$10.38 | 92% 1248-105 (1353) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$1.82 | 73% 230-86 (316) |
CA Candela | Noavg 99.8¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$10.83 | 98% 416-10 (426) |
Invested
$3,820.1
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$13.37
Record
54%
742-631 (1373)
justdanceInvested
$3,000
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$4.5
Record
52%
2707-2540 (5247)
FacaieInvested
$2,064.54
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$10.38
Record
92%
1248-105 (1353)
Invested
$2,042.5
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.82
Record
73%
230-86 (316)
Invested
$1,966.06
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$10.83
Record
98%
416-10 (426)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.