Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 November 9-15?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$16.3K
$118.96
94.4¢ → 97.2¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $15.5K | $15.8K | +$303.16 | 65% 60-33 (93) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $422.88 | $262.37 | -$153.3 | 46% 17-20 (37) |
EA Eager47259ARB<$100 | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $161.53 | $118.45 | -$21.85 | 40% 49-72 (121) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $113.92 | $93.1 | -$21.87 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 97¢ | $25.32 | $25.36 | +$0.01 | |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $97 | $62.08 | +$0.1 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
 justdanceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $65.03 | $34.04 | -$30.99 | 57% 17-13 (30) |
Invested
$15,534.25
Value
$15.8K
PnL
+$303.16
Record
65%
60-33 (93)
Invested
$422.88
Value
$262.37
PnL
-$153.3
Record
46%
17-20 (37)
Invested
$161.53
Value
$118.45
PnL
-$21.85
Record
40%
49-72 (121)
Both legs:
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$97
Value
$62.08
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
justdanceCTR<$100Invested
$65.03
Value
$34.04
PnL
-$30.99
Record
57%
17-13 (30)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.