Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 November 2-8?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$10.9K
-$26.64
97.7¢ → 98.3¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $7.5K | $7.5K | -$47.6 | 65% 2675-1414 (4089) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$11.93 | 77% 295-88 (383) |
 justdance | Noavg 96.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$8.62 | 52% 2753-2567 (5320) |
PH PhongLeXBTCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $103.65 | $143.62 | +$39.97 | 48% 279-300 (579) |
D5 d5BDa0A44B659581CTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $109.45 | $93.83 | -$15.61 | 19% 6-25 (31) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $74.21 | $74.12 | -$0.08 | 48% 9426-10320 (19746) |
Invested
$7,525.26
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$47.6
Record
65%
2675-1414 (4089)
Invested
$1,955.94
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$11.93
Record
77%
295-88 (383)
justdanceInvested
$1,113.54
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$8.62
Record
52%
2753-2567 (5320)
Invested
$103.65
Value
$143.62
PnL
+$39.97
Record
48%
279-300 (579)
Invested
$109.45
Value
$93.83
PnL
-$15.61
Record
19%
6-25 (31)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$74.21
Value
$74.12
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
9426-10320 (19746)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.