Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on November 13?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$159.38

Smart Money Entry

94.7¢ → 98¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares16,621

Combined PnL+$458.42

Yes5 traders

Total Value$185.63

Total Shares9,281

Combined PnL-$299.04

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 91.6¢	$21.0K	$8.7K	+$1.6K	69% 174-79 (253)
EA Eager47259	Noavg 98.3¢	$6.5K	$5.1K	-$967.69	50% 182-185 (367)
Facaie	Noavg 98.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$10.9	92% 68-6 (74)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 97.1¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$205.93	73% 119-45 (164)
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$227.53	$165.65	-$319.43	51% 47-45 (92)
RI Rin2x<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$68.74	$68.6	-$0.14	90% 26-3 (29)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$9.52	$10	+$18.63	53% 750-672 (1422)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$3.22	$5.08	+$1.86	27% 7-19 (26)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$4.67	$4.73	+$0.06	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$910.33	$0.17	-$0.15	53% 125-112 (237)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$21,025.56

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

69%

174-79 (253)

Eager47259

Invested

$6,522.76

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$967.69

Record

50%

182-185 (367)

Facaie

Invested

$1,196.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10.9

Record

92%

68-6 (74)

0xDB5

Invested

$1,426.74

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$205.93

Record

73%

119-45 (164)

CleanCoinFlipCTR

Yes

Invested

$227.53

Value

$165.65

PnL

-$319.43

Record

51%

47-45 (92)

Rin2x<$100

Invested

$68.74

Value

$68.6

PnL

-$0.14

Record

90%

26-3 (29)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$10

PnL

+$18.63

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

PhongLeXBTCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.22

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$1.86

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.67

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0.06

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$910.33

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

125-112 (237)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.