Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on November 14?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 67¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 15
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Research candidate
No
9
No 67%
$45.5K
$-2.9K
89.6¢ → 67.3¢
-25% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 67%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $40.4K | $29.0K | $-11.4K | 68% 182-84 (266) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $1.6K | $9.1K | +$7.6K | 52% 54-49 (103) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Yesavg 37.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | -$222.94 | 5% 12-208 (220) |
 justdance | Noavg 64.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$66.46 | 51% 31-30 (61) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$125.39 | 92% 126-11 (137) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 61.7¢ | $987.8 | $1.0K | +$60.88 | 53% 131-115 (246) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $1.9K | $439.62 | +$666.82 | 71% 122-49 (171) |
 Facaie | Noavg 96¢ | $479.92 | $433.19 | -$46.73 | 91% 75-7 (82) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 58.8¢ | $3.0K | $22.29 | +$167.05 | 50% 195-197 (392) |
Invested
$40,371.23
Value
$29.0K
PnL
$-11.4K
Record
68%
182-84 (266)
Invested
$1,592.73
Value
$9.1K
PnL
+$7.6K
Record
52%
54-49 (103)
Invested
$2,389.96
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$222.94
Record
5%
12-208 (220)
justdanceInvested
$1,999.56
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$66.46
Record
51%
31-30 (61)
Invested
$1,143.73
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$125.39
Record
92%
126-11 (137)
Invested
$987.8
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$60.88
Record
53%
131-115 (246)
Invested
$1,923.59
Value
$439.62
PnL
+$666.82
Record
71%
122-49 (171)
FacaieInvested
$479.92
Value
$433.19
PnL
-$46.73
Record
91%
75-7 (82)
Invested
$2,971.38
Value
$22.29
PnL
+$167.05
Record
50%
195-197 (392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.