Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 November 9-15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

$21.25

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 98.8¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares16,408

Combined PnL+$240.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$220.35

Total Shares15,762

Combined PnL-$219.08

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 98.3¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$49.3	— 1-0 (1)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 97.3¢	$12.7K	$4.7K	+$156	65% 87-46 (133)
justdance	Noavg 97.9¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$35.58	61% 20-13 (33)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 99.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$0.63	—
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 98.6¢	$1.2K	$732.14	-$1.78	72% 62-24 (86)
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$227.93	$109.01	-$118.26	46% 21-25 (46)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$209.32	$108.71	-$100.5	48% 93-99 (192)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 98¢	$124.23	$19.83	+$0.6	47% 738-817 (1555)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$2.94	$2.63	-$0.31	51% 4781-4575 (9356)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$5,898.53

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$49.3

Record

—

1-0 (1)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$12,669.62

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$156

Record

65%

87-46 (133)

justdance

Invested

$2,842.64

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$35.58

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,981.88

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$0.63

Record

—

0xDB5

Invested

$1,209.96

Value

$732.14

PnL

-$1.78

Record

72%

62-24 (86)

CleanCoinFlipCTR

Yes

Invested

$227.93

Value

$109.01

PnL

-$118.26

Record

46%

21-25 (46)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$209.32

Value

$108.71

PnL

-$100.5

Record

48%

93-99 (192)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$124.23

Value

$19.83

PnL

+$0.6

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.94

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.31

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.