Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on November 15?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 85¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 16
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Research candidate
No
9
No 78%
$21.4K
$692.01
84.2¢ → 84.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 85%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $13.7K | $12.9K | -$787.7 | 68% 214-103 (317) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 75.1¢ | $3.4K | $4.0K | +$542.2 | 53% 148-132 (280) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 12.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$250.17 | 54% 65-56 (121) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | +$434.13 | 48% 222-236 (458) |
TI timetowanderCTR | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | -$170.02 | 45% 367-453 (820) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $1.2K | $635.75 | +$57.4 | 71% 145-58 (203) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 58¢ | $761.07 | $532.61 | +$353.54 | 88% 146-20 (166) |
NO NotJump | Noavg 81.5¢ | $184.19 | $196.62 | +$12.43 | 50% 1122-1124 (2246) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $20.75 | $20.63 | -$0.13 | 85% 29-5 (34) |
Invested
$13,667.19
Value
$12.9K
PnL
-$787.7
Record
68%
214-103 (317)
Invested
$3,433.26
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$542.2
Record
53%
148-132 (280)
Invested
$1,129.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$250.17
Record
54%
65-56 (121)
Invested
$1,583.77
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$434.13
Record
48%
222-236 (458)
Invested
$1,172.23
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$170.02
Record
45%
367-453 (820)
Invested
$1,189.93
Value
$635.75
PnL
+$57.4
Record
71%
145-58 (203)
Invested
$761.07
Value
$532.61
PnL
+$353.54
Record
88%
146-20 (166)
Invested
$184.19
Value
$196.62
PnL
+$12.43
Record
50%
1122-1124 (2246)
Invested
$20.75
Value
$20.63
PnL
-$0.13
Record
85%
29-5 (34)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.