Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on November 14?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 73¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$40.1K
$-1.1K
82.7¢ → 73.4¢
-11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 84.2¢ | $25.1K | $23.5K | $-1.6K | 68% 208-97 (305) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 80.6¢ | $5.3K | $5.7K | +$430.93 | 48% 209-222 (431) |
 Facaie | Noavg 91.8¢ | $5.3K | $3.9K | $-1.4K | 87% 78-12 (90) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 20.7¢ | $2.9K | $3.2K | +$370.5 | 53% 60-53 (113) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 52.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.5K | +$719.37 | 52% 139-129 (268) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $3.0K | $1.3K | $-1.7K | 6% 14-208 (222) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 49.2¢ | $3.2K | $458.74 | +$1.8K | 88% 130-17 (147) |
NO NotJump | Noavg 78.9¢ | $515.02 | $312.11 | +$68.13 | 51% 917-874 (1791) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $422.73 | $285.69 | +$251.94 | 72% 139-54 (193) |
Invested
$25,056.45
Value
$23.5K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
68%
208-97 (305)
Invested
$5,284.08
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$430.93
Record
48%
209-222 (431)
FacaieInvested
$5,296.63
Value
$3.9K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
87%
78-12 (90)
Invested
$2,862.64
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$370.5
Record
53%
60-53 (113)
Invested
$1,857.86
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$719.37
Record
52%
139-129 (268)
Invested
$3,000
Value
$1.3K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
6%
14-208 (222)
Invested
$3,196.37
Value
$458.74
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
88%
130-17 (147)
Invested
$515.02
Value
$312.11
PnL
+$68.13
Record
51%
917-874 (1791)
Invested
$422.73
Value
$285.69
PnL
+$251.94
Record
72%
139-54 (193)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.