Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 November 9-15?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$17.1K
-$79.11
98.9¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 0x6916...2fd4 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $10.6K | $10.5K | -$43.4 | — |
 justdance | Noavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$16.5 | 58% 18-13 (31) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$11.91 | 63% 71-42 (113) |
50 0x50b6...9272 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $992 | $984.5 | -$7.5 | — |
5E 0x5e8e...8212<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $79.69 | $79.89 | +$0.2 | — |
Invested
$10,563.69
Value
$10.5K
PnL
-$43.4
Record
—
justdanceInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$16.5
Record
58%
18-13 (31)
Invested
$2,555.04
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$11.91
Record
63%
71-42 (113)
Invested
$992
Value
$984.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
—
Invested
$79.69
Value
$79.89
PnL
+$0.2
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.