Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on November 14?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$10.5K
-$369.26
90¢ → 99.4¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $13.7K | $6.8K | +$311.7 | 68% 208-100 (308) |
 Facaie | Noavg 98.2¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$32.23 | 86% 78-13 (91) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 70.3¢ | $4.1K | $499.12 | +$1.1K | 87% 135-20 (155) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 62.6¢ | $984.73 | $138.51 | +$208.81 | 52% 141-132 (273) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $2.3K | $135.32 | $-2.1K | 6% 14-208 (222) |
NO NotJump | Noavg 88.1¢ | $549.24 | $116.14 | +$95.71 | 51% 994-962 (1956) |
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $530.79 | $69.33 | -$113.4 | 72% 141-54 (195) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 99.5¢ | $46.77 | $46.34 | -$6.68 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $108.54 | $22.99 | -$106.72 | |
TI timetowanderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $6.66 | $6.2 | -$0.46 | 45% 367-448 (815) |
Invested
$13,736.72
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$311.7
Record
68%
208-100 (308)
FacaieInvested
$2,690.85
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$32.23
Record
86%
78-13 (91)
Invested
$4,092.63
Value
$499.12
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
87%
135-20 (155)
Invested
$984.73
Value
$138.51
PnL
+$208.81
Record
52%
141-132 (273)
Invested
$2,275.19
Value
$135.32
PnL
$-2.1K
Record
6%
14-208 (222)
Invested
$549.24
Value
$116.14
PnL
+$95.71
Record
51%
994-962 (1956)
Invested
$530.79
Value
$69.33
PnL
-$113.4
Record
72%
141-54 (195)
Both legs:
Invested
$6.66
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$0.46
Record
45%
367-448 (815)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.