Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 November 9-15?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$14.2K
$37.34
99¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 99¢ | $6.1K | $6.1K | +$12.22 | 65% 87-46 (133) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$9.19 | — 1-0 (1) |
 justdance | Noavg 99.1¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$15 | 61% 20-13 (33) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$1 | — |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $99.3 | $99.2 | -$0.1 | 55% 56-46 (102) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $84.79 | $22.64 | +$0.03 | 47% 738-817 (1555) |
Invested
$6,050.16
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$12.22
Record
65%
87-46 (133)
Invested
$3,029.44
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$9.19
Record
—
1-0 (1)
justdanceInvested
$2,973
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$15
Record
61%
20-13 (33)
Invested
$1,983
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1
Record
—
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$99.3
Value
$99.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
55%
56-46 (102)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$84.79
Value
$22.64
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
738-817 (1555)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.