Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in November?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $28K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$28.1K
-$170.95
96.4¢ → 95.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $14.7K | $14.6K | -$76.64 | 55% 803-666 (1469) |
AF afdafdafdafdafd | Noavg 96.9¢ | $5.4K | $5.3K | -$52.74 | 73% 196-73 (269) |
LO lovedudley | Noavg 96.4¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$7.5 | 80% 767-196 (963) |
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$21 | 85% 606-108 (714) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$13.03 | 59% 2379-1627 (4006) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $14.36 | $14.32 | -$0.04 | 46% 6106-7046 (13152) |
Invested
$14,711.01
Value
$14.6K
PnL
-$76.64
Record
55%
803-666 (1469)
Invested
$5,379.88
Value
$5.3K
PnL
-$52.74
Record
73%
196-73 (269)
Invested
$4,820
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$7.5
Record
80%
767-196 (963)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$21
Record
85%
606-108 (714)
Invested
$1,481.53
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$13.03
Record
59%
2379-1627 (4006)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$14.36
Value
$14.32
PnL
-$0.04
Record
46%
6106-7046 (13152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.