Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 November 9-15?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$32.2K

Combined PnL

$0.12

Smart Money Entry

92.7¢ → 98.7¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$31.8K

Total Shares32,355

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$420.63

Total Shares28,528

Combined PnL$-1.8K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 93.7¢	$17.8K	$18.6K	+$882.66	68% 208-100 (308)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 91.6¢	$9.5K	$10.2K	+$702.55	65% 15-8 (23)
justdance	Noavg 90.3¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$254.94	49% 35-36 (71)
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$1.7K	$196.38	$-1.5K	54% 62-53 (115)
TI timetowanderCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$103.62	$146.35	+$42.74	45% 367-448 (815)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 8.4¢	$485.52	$75.58	-$409.93	49% 213-224 (437)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$66.14	$45.02	+$2.29	50% 1631-1654 (3285)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$5.05	$2.31	-$2.73	52% 141-132 (273)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$17,751.12

Value

$18.6K

PnL

+$882.66

Record

68%

208-100 (308)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$9,501.96

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$702.55

Record

65%

15-8 (23)

justdance

Invested

$2,865.9

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$254.94

Record

49%

35-36 (71)

CleanCoinFlipCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,668.77

Value

$196.38

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

62-53 (115)

timetowanderCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.62

Value

$146.35

PnL

+$42.74

Record

45%

367-448 (815)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$485.52

Value

$75.58

PnL

-$409.93

Record

49%

213-224 (437)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$66.14

Value

$45.02

PnL

+$2.29

Record

50%

1631-1654 (3285)

TokorCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.05

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$2.73

Record

52%

141-132 (273)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.