Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in November?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $20K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$20.0K
-$9.3
97.6¢ → 97.7¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $15.5K | $15.5K | -$8.77 | 55% 803-666 (1469) |
 justdance | Noavg 97.5¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$0 | 52% 2744-2561 (5305) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | +$0.74 | 46% 466-545 (1011) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $810.61 | $807.3 | -$1.24 | 59% 2378-1627 (4005) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $14.66 | $14.63 | -$0.03 | 46% 6086-7026 (13112) |
Invested
$15,474.18
Value
$15.5K
PnL
-$8.77
Record
55%
803-666 (1469)
justdanceInvested
$2,470.42
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
2744-2561 (5305)
Invested
$1,265.78
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0.74
Record
46%
466-545 (1011)
Invested
$810.61
Value
$807.3
PnL
-$1.24
Record
59%
2378-1627 (4005)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$14.66
Value
$14.63
PnL
-$0.03
Record
46%
6086-7026 (13112)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.