Will Bin win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 29

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$318.61

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 92.9¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,694

Combined PnL-$315.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.55

Total Shares222

Combined PnL-$3.22

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 95.3¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$285.9	41% 3602-5114 (8716)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Noavg 96.2¢	$475.77	$290.45	-$17.43	50% 355-348 (703)
Lucerys	Noavg 97.6¢	$119.46	$74.59	-$9.88	43% 18507-24169 (42676)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$71.49	$69.96	-$1.53	27% 3479-9270 (12749)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$10.04	$9.8	-$0.24	46% 6881-8137 (15018)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 94¢	$5.46	$5.48	+$0.02	70% 16761-7351 (24112)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$4.95	$4.8	-$0.15	46% 6626-7759 (14385)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$4.87	$4.72	-$0.15	50% 9315-9358 (18673)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$7.77	$4.55	-$3.22	55% 5484-4526 (10010)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 96¢	$3.8	$3.68	-$0.12	46% 6185-7387 (13572)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$1,696.15

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$285.9

Record

41%

3602-5114 (8716)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Invested

$475.77

Value

$290.45

PnL

-$17.43

Record

50%

355-348 (703)

Lucerys

Invested

$119.46

Value

$74.59

PnL

-$9.88

Record

43%

18507-24169 (42676)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$71.49

Value

$69.96

PnL

-$1.53

Record

27%

3479-9270 (12749)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.04

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.24

Record

46%

6881-8137 (15018)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.46

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$0.02

Record

70%

16761-7351 (24112)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

6626-7759 (14385)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.77

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$3.22

Record

55%

5484-4526 (10010)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.12

Record

46%

6185-7387 (13572)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.2%

92.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.