Will Bill Dally be the next CEO of NVIDIA?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $204 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$203.71
-$2.08
99.3¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.6¢ | $105.68 | $104.89 | -$0.79 | 53% 1614-1416 (3030) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $49.24 | $49.45 | +$0.21 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $20.25 | $20.25 | +$0 | 45% 457-548 (1005) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.88 | $19.96 | +$0.08 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $6.98 | $6.92 | -$0.06 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $3.77 | $2.23 | -$1.53 | 13% 28-182 (210) |
Invested
$105.68
Value
$104.89
PnL
-$0.79
Record
53%
1614-1416 (3030)
Invested
$49.24
Value
$49.45
PnL
+$0.21
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
Invested
$20.25
Value
$20.25
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
457-548 (1005)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$19.88
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.08
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
Invested
$6.98
Value
$6.92
PnL
-$0.06
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.77
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$1.53
Record
13%
28-182 (210)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.