Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Besiktas finish first in UEL league phase?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $107 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$106.51

Combined PnL

$129.33

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$76.74

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$1.83

Yes9 traders

Total Value$29.77

Total Shares1,173

Combined PnL+$131.16

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$78.57	$76.74	-$1.83	53% 23800-20961 (44761)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$8.92	$10.6	+$1.68	40% 6564-9846 (16410)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.53	$9.43	-$8.29	50% 925-910 (1835)
HA haveagooddayCTR	Yesavg 0.1¢	$114.22	$4.37	+$137.09	47% 3850-4310 (8160)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$1.88	+$1.86	27% 2545-6951 (9496)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$1.33	+$1.29	17% 1360-6587 (7947)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$1.21	-$1.06	61% 864-548 (1412)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.53	-$0.47	17% 396-1979 (2375)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.4	-$0.35	49% 6588-6939 (13527)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.61	$0.03	-$0.58	28% 579-1489 (2068)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$78.57

Value

$76.74

PnL

-$1.83

Record

53%

23800-20961 (44761)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.92

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$1.68

Record

40%

6564-9846 (16410)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.53

Value

$9.43

PnL

-$8.29

Record

50%

925-910 (1835)

haveagooddayCTR

Yes

Invested

$114.22

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$137.09

Record

47%

3850-4310 (8160)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$1.86

Record

27%

2545-6951 (9496)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$1.29

Record

17%

1360-6587 (7947)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$1.21

PnL

-$1.06

Record

61%

864-548 (1412)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.47

Record

17%

396-1979 (2375)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.35

Record

49%

6588-6939 (13527)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

579-1489 (2068)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.