Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bennett Stirtz win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $92 held · ends May 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, May 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$91.59

Combined PnL

-$34.96

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$89.87

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.73

Total Shares1,150

Combined PnL-$35

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

61h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$89.82	$89.87	+$0.04	43% 8735-11393 (20128)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$30.63	$0.94	-$28.6	31% 738-1610 (2348)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yes	$59.94	$0.25	-$2.29	47% 3793-4263 (8056)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.65	$0.2	-$1.58	27% 2507-6862 (9369)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.38	$0.14	-$0.24	54% 12396-10610 (23006)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$0.08	$0.08	-$0.63	— 4-0 (4)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.41	$0.06	-$0.35	31% 3237-7104 (10341)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.06	$0.03	-$0.25	41% 796-1133 (1929)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	$80.92	$0.02	-$1.06	49% 6543-6924 (13467)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$89.82

Value

$89.87

PnL

+$0.04

Record

43%

8735-11393 (20128)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.63

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$28.6

Record

31%

738-1610 (2348)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.94

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$2.29

Record

47%

3793-4263 (8056)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.58

Record

27%

2507-6862 (9369)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.24

Record

54%

12396-10610 (23006)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.63

Record

—

4-0 (4)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.35

Record

31%

3237-7104 (10341)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.25

Record

41%

796-1133 (1929)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.92

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.06

Record

49%

6543-6924 (13467)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

61h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.